2025년 유통산업은 민간 소비 활력 여력은 인구 고령화, 고물가·고금리 등 복합적인 요인으로 인해 크게 위축됐다.
이러한 가운데 민생회복 소비쿠폰은 침체된 내수시장을 활성화시키는 일명 승수 효과를 기대할 수 있는 정책이었다. 실제로 직간접 효과로 유통업계 전반의 매출 반등세가 확인됐다. 한국개발연구원(KDI) 분석 결과, 소비쿠폰 지급 직후 6주간 쿠폰 사용 가능 업종의 매출은 지급 직전 2주 대비 평균 4.93% 늘어난 것으로 나타났다.
한국개발연구원(KDI) 분석에 따르면, 소비쿠폰 지급 직후 6주간 쿠폰 사용 가능 업종의 매출은 지급 직전 2주 대비 평균 4.93% 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 쿠폰 사용처였던 편의점은 물론, 사용처에서 제외됐던 백화점도 간접 효과에 힘입어 회복세를 보였다.
산업통상자원부 자료를 보면, 지난 7월과 8월 백화점 오프라인 매출은 지난해 같은 기간 대비 각각 5.1%, 2.8% 늘었고, 편의점 매출 역시 3.9%, 1.1% 오르며 두 달 연속 증가했다. 증권가에서는 올해 3분기 편의점 매출은 전년 대비 약 4%, 백화점 기존점은 4~6% 증가할 것으로 예상했다.
그러나 이 정책의 효과는 오래가지 못했다. 1인당 15만~45만 원의 1차 소비쿠폰이 본격적으로 지급된 8월, 소매판매는 오히려 전월 대비 2% 넘게 줄어들며 4개월 만에 감소세로 돌아섰다.
올해 초 감소세였던 소매판매는 5월 보합, 6월 0.6% 증가로 돌아섰고, 1차 소비쿠폰 지급(7월 21일~9월 12일)이 시작된 7월에는 소비가 2.7% 늘어나 증가 폭을 키웠다. 8월 소매판매가 감소한 것은 소비쿠폰 지급 시작으로 전달인 7월 소매판매가 급증했던 ‘기저효과’가 반영된 측면이 있다. 즉, 소비 진작 효과가 7월 한 달에 그쳤다는 평가가 나온다.
(사진 신세계면세점)
◇ 소비쿠폰의 한계, 유통가 ‘마중물’에 그쳐…중국 관광객 관심 집중
소비쿠폰 효과가 끝난 올 4분기, 유통업계의 호재로 예상하고 있는 유커(游客·중국인 단체 관광객)에 관심이 집중되고 있다. 여행사가 모객한 3명 이상 중국 단체가 9월 말부터 무비자로 입국할 수 있다.
최장 15일 머문다. 내년 6월 말까지 한시적인 조치지만 파격적이다.
중국 단체 관광객 무비자 입국 조치는 유통, 여행, 레저 산업 전반에 걸쳐 5조 원 이상의 경제적 파급효과를 가져올 수 있는 ‘트리거(Trigger)’로 평가된다. 특히 한국은행은 중국 단체 관광객이 100만 명 추가 입국할 경우 국내총생산(GDP)이 0.08%p 상승할 것으로 분석했다.
장벽이 낮아지면 패키지 관광객이 몰려들 수 있다. 일정이 짧으니 동선이 단순하다. 비자가 필요 없으니 여행사들은 일정에 쇼핑을 더 두텁게 넣을 수 있다. 공항 트래픽이 늘면 공항면세의 객수는 자연스럽게 움직인다. 공항과 항만, 시내면세점, 백화점, 카지노, K-뷰티, 미용 의료 등이 대표적이다. 돈이 ‘빠르게’ 돌고 ‘짧게’ 모인다.
이미 효과는 드러나고 있다. 지난 9월 관광객을 포함해 한국을 찾은 중국인 수가 1년 전보다 16% 증가한 것으로 나타났다.
(CJ올리브영)
법무부에 따르면 지난 9월 한국에 입국한 중국인은 52만 5396명으로, 지난해 같은 달(45만 1496명)보다 16.4% 증가한 것으로 잠정 집계됐다. 다만 지난달 한국을 찾은 중국인은 휴가철을 맞아 외국인 방한 관광객이 많았던 지난 8월(61만 3177명)보다는 적었다.
유커의 증가세는 무비자 정책이 아니었더라도 꾸준히 이어지고 있었다. 한국관광공사의 한국관광통계 최신 수치를 보면, 지난 8월 기준 외국인 방한 관광객 3명 중 1명은 중국인이었다.
또 지난 8월 한국을 찾은 중국인 관광객은 60만 5000명으로, 지난 1월(36만 4000명)의 1.7배로 늘었고, 코로나19 유행 전인 2019년 8월(57만 8000명)보다 많았다.
유통업계는 유커 맞이 준비에 총력전을 펼치고 있다. 실적 악화에 시달리는 면세점 업계가 대표적이다.
한국면세점협회 발표에 따르면, 올해 7월 국내 면세점 매출액은 9199억 원으로, 지난해 7월(1조 65억 원) 대비 8.6% 감소했다.
◇ 연휴기간 럭셔리 매출↑…이중 중국인 매출만 떼어보면 90% 급증
핵심은 명동이었다. 본점 외국인 매출이 45% 뛰었다. 본점 9층 K-패션 전문관 ‘키네틱 그라운드’에서는 연휴 기간 외국인 매출 비중이 80%까지 치솟았다. 중국 소비자는 마뗑킴(MATINKIM), 더바넷(The Barnnet) 등 국내 디자이너 브랜드에 특히 반응했다.
럭셔리도 매출이 올랐다. 외국인 대상 롯데상품권 증정 이벤트 집계를 보면, 연휴 동안 럭셔리 매출이 외국인 기준 절반 이상 증가했다. 그중 중국인 매출만 떼어보면 90% 급증했다.
나머지 백화점 매출도 올랐다. 추석 연휴(3∼9일) 백화점의 일평균 매출은 2024년 추석 연휴(9월 14∼18일)에 비해 급증했다. 신세계백화점은 25.5%, 현대백화점은 25.2% 각각 늘었다. 일평균 방문 고객 수도 25% 이상 증가했다.
편의점도 반등했다. 역시 유커 효과다. 편의점은 작은 편의가 큰 매출로 바뀌는 곳이다. 외국인이 몰리는 상권의 편의점은 객단가가 높다. 컵라면, 즉석식, 음료, 여행용품이 잘 돈다. 중국어 라벨과 간편결제만 깔아도 매출이 붙는다.
실제로 CU는 연휴(10월 1~9일) 동안 해외 결제(알리페이·위챗페이·유니온페이) 데이터를 집계한 결과, 중국인 매출이 전년 대비 98.8% 늘었다. 가장 많이 팔린 품목은 빙그레 바나나우유, 그다음은 생수(롯데 아이시스8.0, 제주 삼다수)였다.
GS25도 기류가 같았다. 외국인이 많이 찾는 인사동 등 주요 점포 4곳의 연휴 매출(10월 3~7일)이 직전 주 대비 약 28% 증가했다. 뉴안녕인사동점은 외국인 비중이 평소 25%에서 연휴 동안 60%까지 뛰었다. 세븐일레븐은 9월 29일부터 10월 9일까지 명동·종로 등 20여 개 점포에서 은련카드·알리페이 매출이 전주 대비 50% 늘었다고 집계했다.
(사진 신세계면세점)
K-뷰티와 미용의료는 콘텐츠로 객단가를 키우고 있다. 한국 여행의 대표 쇼핑은 이제 화장품이다.
단체가 돌아오면 면세 히어로 상품이 먼저 깨어난다. 톤업, 선케어, 립, 베이스 — 사진 한 장으로 팔리는 품목들이다. LG생활건강과 아모레퍼시픽은 시내면세와 백화점 카운터에서 체감이 빠르다. 묶음과 한정판은 전환율이 높다.
‘K관광 필수 코스’로 꼽히는 CJ올리브영은 명동·홍대·강남 등 글로벌 관광 상권 매장에 ‘올영 세일’에 준하는 재고를 확보했다. 여기에 APEC 같은 국제행사가 겹치면 도심 호텔과 프리미엄 F&B, 면세 등 이제 타이밍이다.
(사진 문화체육관광부
◇ 유커 동선에 서는 기업이 이긴다…기대는 낮추고 실행은 빠르게
10월 말부터 12월 초까지. 보통 이 구간이 분기 포인트다. 온라인 여행사(OTA)의 단체상품 공급이 주 단위로 늘고, 예약이 실제 출국으로 바뀌면 11월 중반부터 체감이 커진다. 공항 트래픽은 월 단위로 수치가 나온다. 임차료와 송객비는 분기 단위로 반영된다.
트래픽이 오르는데 임차료 할인은 유지되는 구간이 길수록 면세의 레버리지는 커진다. 카지노는 바닥을 넓히는 데에서 출발해 VIP 믹스 개선으로 간다. 뷰티는 히어로 SKU의 회복이 먼저, 현지 재고와 가격 안정이 다음이다. 편의점은 외국인 상권 점포부터 숫자가 튄다. 명동, 동대문, 잠실, 제주. 간판과 동선, 결제를 얼마나 빨리 손봤는지, 그 차이가 매출을 가른다.
유커는 한때 한국 유통을 쥐고 흔들었다. 2014~2016년, 명동의 상권 지도가 바뀌었다. 그 수가 전체 외국인 관광객의 절반가량(2016년 기준 47.55%)을 차지하는 데다 이들을 통해 벌어들이는 관광수입만 연간 16조 원(한국관광공사 2015년 기준)에 이르기 때문이다. 화장품 로드숍이 줄지어 들어섰고 면세 매출이 폭발했다. MERS 충격과 사드 갈등, 2017년 단체관광 금지로 급정거했다.
하지만 리스크도 분명하다. 무엇보다 중국 내 소비 둔화가 문제다. 그간 중국 경제가 그동안 과도한 부동산 공급 등으로 투자가 성장을 이끌 여력이 작아진 상황이다. 중국 정부의 강력한 경기부양 의지, 서비스소비 확대 정책 추진 등 긍정적 요인도 있지만, 지난 25년 동안 7%대 이상의 성장률을 유지해온 과거와는 상황이 다르다. 환율이 갑자기 뛰면 이들의 지갑도 닫힐 수 있다는 점도 문제다.
그래서 너무 과한 기대는 금물이다. 늘어난 방문객이 실제 객단가로 이어지는지, 그 이익이 비용을 이길 수 있는지, 회사별로 냉정하게 따져야 한다.
그럼에도 이번 사이클이 예전과 다를 가능성은 있다. 과거에는 중국 보따리상, 즉 따이공이 판을 키웠다. 특정 카테고리에 물량이 몰렸다.지금은 FIT(개별자유여행)와 단체 관광객이 동시에 몰려오고 있고, 크루즈 관광과 항공 관광이 동시에 열렸다.
여기에 결제와 환급이 디지털로 묶였다. 사진 한 장, QR 한 번으로 전환이 끝난다. ‘찍고 가는 쇼핑’에서 ‘계획형 소비’로의 이동이 시작됐다. 머무는 시간이 짧아도 객단가는 높아질 수 있다. 체험이 들어가면 재방문이 생긴다.
면세와 백화점, 뷰티와 의료, 식당과 공연이 서로 고객을 보내 주는 구조가 만들어진다. 한 번 잘 다녀간 팀은 겨울에 또 온다. 이 선순환이 생기면, 4분기의 반짝이 아니라 내년 상반기까지 이어지는 흐름이 된다.
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